Crispdust
mmmm this may help you my friend.:
Common Errors in Calculating Odds
If you're like most somewhat read poker players, you'll think that your chances of drawing to a straight or a flush is 2:1, because you've read it and seen in in poker books high and low. I want to tell you right now, that this can be a very wrong statement to apply to your game at face value. Here are a list of common errors for drawing:
Calculating the odds for two cards at a time, instead of one card at a time
Miscounting outs, either by not counting enough or not taking into account counterfeit outs
Not taking into account implied value - what your opponents will put into the pot if you make your hand
Regarding the points above, I will go into more detail regarding each one and explain why they are common mistakes for many poker players and how to correct your thinking.
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Figuring odds one hand at a time
I believe one of the major reasons that I've seen players make this mistake in calculating odds, is that poker odds tables universally show the odds of making a hand by the river first, then the odds of making a hand by the turn. In reality, unless you are playing in no-limit tournaments or playing in a crazy no-limit cash game, you will rarely ever have to perform a two-card calculation for your hand. The huge majority of the time, you will need to figure out your odds on your immediate hand to the next card, so it's pointless to calculate any more than that. You can do yourself a big favor by forgetting the odds of making your hand by the river and instead, memorize the odds of making hands one card at a time.
Example: A lot of players tend to draw their open-ended straights thinking they only need 2:1 pot odds. This is sorely wrong. What is true is that an open ended straight draw sits at a 4.7:1 chance of completing when calculated one card at a time. This is a very far cry from a 2:1 odd draw and still nearly one whole big bet off compared to the 4:1 mentality.
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Miscounting Outs
Out counting is an important skill that is often overlooked or too easily assumed. Every time you are on a draw, you need to know exactly how many true outs you have. True outs are cards that will help your hand while not helping your opponents' hand in the process. An out that hurts you is considered a counterfeit out. Often times, your true outs may be in a gray area, because you don't for certain whether or not a certain out is counterfeit or not. Thus, your ability to read your opponents and put them on a hand is going to be very critical in figuring out what your true outs are.
Example: Players will often draw to a straight with a flush draw possibility on the table, because they haven't taken into account that two of their straight outs actually complete someone elses' flush draw. On the other hand, a play might have AK with a paired Ace and face some heavy raising from the BB, who he suspects of having two pair. The AK player may think that he must hit another Ace or King (5 outs) in order to win the hand, where the reality is that he has 3 more outs for the board to pair (and not give his opponent a full house), which gives the player 8 outs. Another common mistake is to not recognize the Ace counterfeit, where you make mid-pair on the flop let's say and have the pot odds to draw for a two pair. While you may make the best hand, an Ace on the board may also mean that the top pair also makes two pair as well in the process, thus nullifying your Ace out. Not always the case, but something to be mindful of.
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The mistake of not factoring Implied Value
Not factoring in implied value is a huge error that a lot of players make, because they drop out of a draw when the are actually break-even or better on making their hand. For those who need a quick refresher on implied value - IV is considered the extra bet in the pot that occurs when your opponent calls you or bets on the river after you've made your hand. Implied value assumes that your opponent will indeed pay an extra bet on the river, which a number of old or weak-tight books have said they wouldn't. Realistically, this is mostly untrue.
Internet poker players, especially in the low limit games, will often pay you out quite handsomely at the river if they have gone that far, so it is almost an automatic assumption that you will get an extra bet on the river. What this means in application, is that all of your odds of drawing should be effectively reduced by one when calculating your odds. In fact, your flop to turn draw can also be decreased by 2 points, as the implied odds double when considering a turn bet vs a flop bet
willy wonka |
